Just eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the source for the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
